BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Washington has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+7%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Washington. See the full index history below.

Chukar Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Washington is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.06–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Washington is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.06–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.040.66
20260.360.050.67
20270.360.050.67
20280.370.060.68
20290.370.060.68

Chukar Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Chukar in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Asotin1320241971
Moses Coulee1120232000
Nighthawk1020241992
Yakima720241993
Mercer419761968
Tonasket420031982
Cloverland320241993
Twisp219701970
Bickleton219901980
Ellensburg220241982
Keystone219991999
Hanford Site119911991
Brewster119991977
Selah120122000
Ardenvoir119851970
Harrington119721972
Quincy120161981
Wilbur120122012
Ewan119871987
Richland120182014
Hatton119931993
Pomeroy120172000
Lake Chelan120241994

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.