BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar Population Trend in Washington

All statesGame birds

Chukar in Washington has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+58%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has risen sharply in Washington: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Chukar Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Washington is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.08–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Washington is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.08–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.060.76
20270.410.070.76
20280.420.070.77
20290.420.080.77
20300.430.080.78

Chukar Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Chukar in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses Coulee1220252000
Asotin1020251971
Yakima820251993
Nighthawk720251992
Mercer419761968
Tonasket420031982
Cloverland420251993
Twisp219701970
Bickleton219901980
Ellensburg220251982
Keystone219991999
Hanford Site119911991
Brewster119991977
Selah120122000
Ardenvoir119851970
Harrington119721972
Quincy120161981
Wilbur120122012
Ewan119871987
Richland120182014
Hatton119931993
Pomeroy120172000
Lake Chelan120241994

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.