BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in California has surged: up 548% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+548%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has surged in California: up 548% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Chukar Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±242.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in California is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.45
20260.140.000.45
20270.140.000.45
20280.140.000.45
20290.140.000.45

Chukar Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Chukar in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inyokern1220241990
Goldstone820062002
Haiwee Res720052004
Mt Baldy620182018
Big Pine620241971
Deep Springs520181977
Ft Irwin519791979
Eureka Val420241975
Willow Spgs319741974
Darwin320051993
Greenwater V220182014
Onyx219971969
Dorris219821977
Chilcoot220232023
Benton220212021
Joshua Tree 2220142014
Kelso Valley120141973
Kings Canyon119721972
Wildrose120051993
Honey Lake120241979
Valley Wells120162016
Cedarville120241978
Trona119951995
Lucerne Val119991999
Bodie120121982

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.