BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar Population Trend in California

All statesGame birds

Chukar in California has surged: up 660% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+660%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in California. See the full index history below.

Chukar Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in California is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in California is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.45
20270.140.000.45
20280.140.000.45
20290.140.000.45
20300.140.000.45

Chukar Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Chukar in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inyokern1220241990
Goldstone820062002
Haiwee Res720052004
Honey Lake720251979
Mt Baldy620182018
Big Pine620241971
Deep Springs520181977
Ft Irwin519791979
Eureka Val420241975
Willow Spgs319741974
Darwin320051993
Greenwater V220182014
Onyx219971969
Dorris219821977
Cedarville220251978
Chilcoot220232023
Benton220212021
Joshua Tree 2220142014
Kelso Valley120141973
Kings Canyon119721972
Wildrose120051993
Valley Wells120162016
Trona119951995
Lucerne Val120251999
Bodie120121982

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.