BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Utah has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-65%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has fallen sharply in Utah: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Chukar Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.002.1
20260.000.002.1
20270.000.002.1
20280.000.002.1
20290.000.002.1

Chukar Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Chukar in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leamington3420171992
Promontory2020241969
Shivwitz1620242008
Wendover1219741970
Johnson Can1120242006
Book Ridge920242016
Goose Creek Mtn.720232005
Bonanza720062002
Castleton419761969
Timpie Spg320031980
Glen Canyon320161998
Gold Hill320241988
Oak City220232023
Callao220241999
Fayette220191992
Jericho Junction220232001
Westwater220241998
Hardware Ranch220162000
Salt Springs120181988
E. Bear Lake120181996
Goshen120181988
Desert View120172007
Hite120072006
Lynn120032003
Randolph120102010

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.