BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Oregon has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Chukar Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.002.6
20261.00.002.6
20271.00.002.6
20281.00.002.6
20291.000.002.5

Chukar Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Chukar in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim3320241993
Willow Spg2119711969
Sparta1820001971
Warner Vally1320241993
Mikkalo1220231996
Adrian1120211984
Alvord Lake1020241968
Twickenham920242010
Trout Creek720211996
Blitzen 2620231996
Eightmile620241982
Crane620242003
Crowley520221983
Montague520241976
Imnaha420241971
Princeton419841972
Battle Mtn420171985
Troy420242021
Harney Lake320221997
Crooked Riv.320051997
Flook Lake320242024
Three Forks220242003
Lone Rock219911971
Zumwalt220052000
Bridgeport220221986

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.