BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGame birds

Chukar in Oregon has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Chukar Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Oregon is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Oregon is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.6
20271.10.002.6
20281.10.002.6
20291.10.002.6
20301.10.002.6

Chukar Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Chukar in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim4220251993
Willow Spg2119711969
Bridgeport1920251986
Adrian1920251984
Blizzard Gap1820251984
Twickenham1820252010
Trout Creek1620251996
Warner Vally1320241993
Sparta1120251971
Battle Mtn1020251985
Eightmile820251982
Montague720251976
Crane620242003
Crowley520251983
Monument520251993
Blitzen 2420251996
Imnaha420251971
Princeton419841972
Troy420242021
Crooked Riv.420251997
Mikkalo320251996
Harney Lake320221997
Flook Lake320242024
Lone Rock219911971
Zumwalt220052000

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.