BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGame birds

Chukar in Wyoming has surged: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+357%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has surged in Wyoming: up 357% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Chukar Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Wyoming is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Wyoming is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.040.30
20270.170.040.31
20280.180.040.31
20290.180.050.32
20300.180.050.32

Chukar Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Chukar in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nowood1220252002
Gebo820251980
Lovell220242019
Meeteetse220251999
Tensleep220252015
Sand Draw220242013
Flamin Gorge220102010
Rock Springs119771977
Cody120042003
Otto120142014
Basin119821982
Frannie120192019
Dubois120211988
Arvada120162016
Ervay120222016
Crowheart120212002
Anchor120182016
Worland120242011

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.