BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Wyoming has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+365%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has surged in Wyoming: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Chukar Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Wyoming is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Wyoming is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.030.29
20260.160.030.30
20270.170.030.30
20280.170.040.30
20290.170.040.30

Chukar Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Chukar in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gebo1120241980
Meeteetse320241999
Tensleep320152015
Lovell220242019
Nowood220242002
Sand Draw220242013
Flamin Gorge220102010
Rock Springs119771977
Cody120042003
Otto120142014
Basin119821982
Frannie120192019
Dubois120211988
Arvada120162016
Ervay120222016
Crowheart120212002
Anchor120182016
Worland120242011

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.