BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Idaho has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-92%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has collapsed in Idaho: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Chukar Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±255.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.0
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0

Chukar Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Chukar in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Picabo620211988
Silver City520241989
Salmon River420211988
Magic Mtn320241987
Joel320241989
Hot Spring319911988
Gifford220091971
Kyle Canyon219991995
Baker220231994
Challis220211999
Leadore220151976
Blacks Creek220152015
Triangle220211986
Iron Springs220092002
Dougal Res220032003
Twin Buttes119941994
Glenns Ferry119861986
Pocatello119811981
Cobalt120072002
Crane Creek120121988
Pasadena Val120061987

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.