BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Chukar in Nevada has surged: up 695% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+695%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chukar Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has surged in Nevada: up 695% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chukar Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.53–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.53–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.384.3
20262.40.414.3
20272.40.454.4
20282.50.494.4
20292.50.534.5

Chukar Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Chukar in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beatty3220242006
Humboldt Nf 22020242021
Sand Pass1820241979
Sutcliffe1519711969
Jean Lake1520091996
Midas1220241974
Toiyabe Nf1220241990
Fish Creek1120211997
Austin920182010
Piute Mdws720242005
Ruby Valley720012001
Bald Mtn.720241994
Vya619741972
Humboldt Nf620182005
Willis520242005
Chimney Res.420242013
Cortez319691969
Dobbin Creek320171985
Dinner Sta219741968
Walker Can220062006
Mizpah220192019
Gardnerville220052005
Jarbidge220122012
Hawthorne219991999
Calico Spr119711971

Chukar Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontanaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.