BirdAnalyst
Guild · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Birds Of Prey In Utah

All statesUtah

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Birds of prey as a group have declined in Utah, down 41% since 1970.

Birds Of Prey In Utah Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Utah is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Birds of prey in Utah is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.80
20260.230.000.78
20270.220.000.77
20280.200.000.76
20290.190.000.75

Member Species In Utah

Birds of prey species in Utah.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-84%
American GoshawkAccipitridae-80%
Burrowing OwlStrigidae-74%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-72%
Ferruginous HawkAccipitridae-60%
American KestrelFalconidae-60%
Prairie FalconFalconidae-55%
Peregrine FalconFalconidae-51%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-48%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae-41%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae-33%
Short-eared OwlStrigidae-32%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-30%
Golden EagleAccipitridae-1%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+422%
OspreyPandionidae+578%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.