BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In New York

All statesNew York

58 species in this guild. As a group they are -41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in New York, down 41% since 1968.

Generalists In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in New York is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in New York is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.44.38.5
20266.34.28.4
20276.24.18.3
20286.14.08.2
20296.03.98.1

Member Species In New York

Generalists species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Pine SiskinFringillidae-91%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-83%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-71%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-67%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-66%
Common GrackleIcteridae-66%
House SparrowPasseridae-64%
European StarlingSturnidae-59%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-57%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-56%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-54%
Purple FinchFringillidae-54%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-53%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-52%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-47%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-42%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-38%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-37%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-36%
American KestrelFalconidae-33%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae-33%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-19%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-18%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-17%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae-15%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-5%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-4%
Canada JayCorvidae-2%
American CrowCorvidae+17%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+20%
Blue JayCorvidae+20%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+24%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+42%
American GoshawkAccipitridae+53%
Rusty BlackbirdIcteridae+61%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+69%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+101%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+108%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae+113%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+125%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+136%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+145%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+160%
Fish CrowCorvidae+192%
Barred OwlStrigidae+197%
MerlinFalconidae+198%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+201%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae+345%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+389%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae+562%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+629%
House FinchFringillidae+659%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+712%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+765%
Turkey VultureCathartidae17×
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae27×
OspreyPandionidae45×
Common RavenCorvidae58×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.