BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In New York

All statesNew York

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -48%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in New York, down 48% since 1968.

Generalists In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.818
2027137.518
2028127.218
2029126.917
2030126.617

Member Species In New York

Generalists species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Common GrackleIcteridae-64%
House SparrowPasseridae-63%
European StarlingSturnidae-54%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-43%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-40%
American CrowCorvidae+17%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+110%
Fish CrowCorvidae+152%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae+303%
House FinchFringillidae+673%
Common RavenCorvidae61×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.