BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Missouri

All statesMissouri

53 species in this guild. As a group they are -47%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Missouri, down 47% since 1969.

Generalists In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Missouri is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.7–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Missouri is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.7–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.75.38.2
20266.65.18.0
20276.45.07.9
20286.34.87.7
20296.14.77.6

Member Species In Missouri

Generalists species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-95%
House SparrowPasseridae-85%
Common GrackleIcteridae-83%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-71%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-69%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-67%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-67%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-62%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-61%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae-56%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-47%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-40%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-36%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-31%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-26%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-23%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-22%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-22%
European StarlingSturnidae-21%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae-20%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-13%
Blue JayCorvidae-8%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-1%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+6%
Eurasian Tree SparrowPasseridae+21%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+24%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+25%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+27%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+27%
American CrowCorvidae+46%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+53%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+80%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+81%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+90%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+94%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae+99%
American KestrelFalconidae+118%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+122%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+129%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+172%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+202%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+262%
Black VultureCathartidae+401%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+486%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+528%
Barred OwlStrigidae+553%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+585%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+599%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+657%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+684%
Fish CrowCorvidae15×
House FinchFringillidae19×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae25×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.