BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Missouri

All statesMissouri

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -66%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Missouri, down 66% since 1969.

Generalists In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Missouri is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Missouri is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.90.9315
20277.30.3714
20286.70.0014
20296.20.0013
20305.60.0013

Member Species In Missouri

Generalists species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-86%
Common GrackleIcteridae-85%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-63%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-58%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-25%
European StarlingSturnidae-24%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+19%
Eurasian Tree SparrowPasseridae+29%
American CrowCorvidae+36%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+671%
Fish CrowCorvidae16×
House FinchFringillidae18×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.