BirdAnalyst
Guild · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Mississippi

All statesMississippi

49 species in this guild. As a group they are -44%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Mississippi, down 44% since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Mississippi is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Mississippi is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.77.7
20266.14.67.6
20276.04.57.5
20285.94.47.4
20295.84.37.3

Member Species In Mississippi

Generalists species in Mississippi.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-92%
Common GrackleIcteridae-91%
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-83%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-80%
American KestrelFalconidae-79%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-70%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-67%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-65%
European StarlingSturnidae-64%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae-60%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-54%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-53%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-50%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-49%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-36%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae-36%
Blue JayCorvidae-35%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-34%
Swallow-tailed KiteAccipitridae-33%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-22%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-17%
Common Ground DoveColumbidae-11%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-10%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-8%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-4%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae+3%
American CrowCorvidae+5%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+12%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+47%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+47%
Black VultureCathartidae+48%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae+50%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+56%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+59%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+61%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+109%
Barred OwlStrigidae+120%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+124%
Fish CrowCorvidae+135%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+160%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+193%
House FinchFringillidae+251%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+451%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae+474%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+788%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+810%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae11×
AnhingaAnhingidae13×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae26×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.