BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

67 species in this guild. As a group they are -40%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Minnesota, down 40% since 1969.

Generalists In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.9–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.25.8
20264.43.15.8
20274.43.05.7
20284.33.05.6
20294.22.95.5

Member Species In Minnesota

Generalists species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-86%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae-85%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-85%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-82%
American KestrelFalconidae-77%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-74%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae-70%
European StarlingSturnidae-70%
Brewer's BlackbirdIcteridae-69%
House SparrowPasseridae-67%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-64%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae-63%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-58%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-57%
Common GrackleIcteridae-56%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-54%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-51%
Great Gray OwlStrigidae-42%
Nelson's SparrowPasserellidae-36%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-35%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-23%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-22%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-20%
Swainson's HawkAccipitridae-20%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae-19%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-16%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-15%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-15%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-13%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-9%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae-3%
Purple FinchFringillidae-2%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+1%
OspreyPandionidae+1%
Clay-colored SparrowPasserellidae+2%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+6%
Gray PartridgePhasianidae+10%
American CrowCorvidae+11%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+14%
Short-eared OwlStrigidae+16%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+22%
Canada JayCorvidae+35%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+48%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+55%
Barred OwlStrigidae+65%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+71%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae+72%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+77%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+78%
Blue JayCorvidae+88%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+94%
Sharp-tailed GrousePhasianidae+124%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+130%
Black-billed MagpieCorvidae+135%
LeConte's SparrowPasserellidae+170%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+171%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+191%
MerlinFalconidae+216%
House FinchFringillidae+258%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+275%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+316%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+662%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+696%
Common RavenCorvidae+724%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+726%
Bald EagleAccipitridae16×
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae45×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.