BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Minnesota, down 52% since 1969.

Generalists In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Minnesota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 2.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Minnesota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 2.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.73.314
20278.43.014
20288.12.713
20297.82.413
20307.52.113

Member Species In Minnesota

Generalists species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Brewer's BlackbirdIcteridae-71%
House SparrowPasseridae-69%
European StarlingSturnidae-67%
Common GrackleIcteridae-54%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-13%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-5%
American CrowCorvidae+8%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+83%
Black-billed MagpieCorvidae+117%
House FinchFringillidae+333%
Common RavenCorvidae+687%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae54×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.