BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Kite

AccipitridaeBirds of preyElanus leucurus

White-tailed Kite has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-tailed Kite

The White-tailed Kite (Elanus leucurus) is a North American member of the Hawks, Eagles & Kites (Accipitridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
17.5–39.5 in long (45–100 cm) — a medium to large raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 161 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
Family
Accipitridae · Birds of prey

Notable White-tailed Kite TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-tailed Kite. See the full index history below.

White-tailed Kite Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.02
20260.000.000.02
20270.000.000.02
20280.000.000.02
20290.000.000.02

Where the White-tailed Kite Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-tailed Kite, sized by most recent count.

White-tailed Kite Population Trend by State

White-tailed Kite population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-57%19954
California-81%197091
Floridainsufficient datan/a5
Louisianainsufficient datan/a4
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a7
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregoninsufficient datan/a4
Texas-24%197343
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2

White-tailed Kite Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-tailed Kite population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-63%197217
Oaks and Prairies-68%198012
Coastal California-73%197078
Tamaulipan Brushlands+7%197515
Gulf Coastal Prairie-36%197611

White-tailed Kite Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 76% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.