BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-tailed Kite In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

White-tailed Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-51%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Kite has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

White-tailed Kite In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.30
20270.120.000.30
20280.120.000.30
20290.120.000.30
20300.120.000.30

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White-tailed Kite in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22008
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12025
Hinkles FerTEXAS12001
IndianolaTEXAS11998
WinnieTEXAS11997
DanburyTEXAS12005
Rock IslandTEXAS12022
ChinquapinTEXAS12013
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12017
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12021
McfaddinTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.