BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Kite Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

White-tailed Kite in Texas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-24%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-tailed Kite Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-tailed Kite in Texas. See the full index history below.

White-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±384.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±384.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±384.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.08
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.040.000.08

White-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-tailed Kite in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymondville320071975
Zapata219791979
Goliad Prairie220082008
Campbellton219861986
Catarina219951995
Hondo220082008
Oak Grove219801980
Progreso220111999
Massey Lake219801980
Lag Atascosa120231971
Rachal120151983
Agua Nueva120111972
Kingsville120021974
L. Atascosa Nwr120211998
Mcfaddin120122012
Encinal119841982
Hinkles Fer120011979
Indianola119981981
Hobson120162016
Winnie119971997
Danbury120051984
Arenosa Crk120062006
Rock Island120221998
Muldoon120121973
Lockhart120022002

White-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniafloridalouisiananew-mexicooklahomaoregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.