BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Kite Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

White-tailed Kite in California has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-tailed Kite Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Kite has collapsed in California: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-tailed Kite Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in California is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in California is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.25
20260.030.000.24
20270.030.000.24
20280.020.000.23
20290.010.000.23

White-tailed Kite Survey Routes in California

Routes recording White-tailed Kite in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tres Pinos 21320112005
Calpella519811978
Cp. Pendleton520041970
Oneals519831975
Honeydew319911976
Moreno320241975
Zamora320041974
Athlone320041978
Pennington220081972
Gravesboro219951969
Onyx219691969
Point Reyes220171975
Poway219771973
Westley220071975
Tranquillity220011975
Bodega Bay220081973
Ora Loma219831973
Staten Is.220091994
Crescent Cty119851985
Holmes120131972
Red Bluff119891978
Jofegan 2120242024
Fish Rock120061969
Rumsey120051984
Riovista120131974

White-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.