BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Kite In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

White-tailed Kite in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Kite has fallen sharply in Coastal California: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Coastal California is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Coastal California is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.66
20260.160.000.65
20270.150.000.64
20280.150.000.63
20290.140.000.62

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording White-tailed Kite in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA132011
CalpellaCALIFORNIA51981
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA52004
OnealsCALIFORNIA51983
MorenoCALIFORNIA32024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA32004
AthloneCALIFORNIA32004
PenningtonCALIFORNIA22008
GravesboroCALIFORNIA21995
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA22017
PowayCALIFORNIA21977
WestleyCALIFORNIA22007
TranquillityCALIFORNIA22001
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA21983
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA22009
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11989
RumseyCALIFORNIA12005
RiovistaCALIFORNIA12013
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA12002
HughsonCALIFORNIA12016
CaruthersCALIFORNIA11986
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA12002
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA11997
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA12007
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.