BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Kite In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

White-tailed Kite in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+7%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-tailed Kite in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 41% by 2026 — from 0.11 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Kite in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 41% by 2026 — from 0.11 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.160.000.36
20230.160.000.36
20240.160.000.36
20250.160.000.36
20260.160.000.36

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording White-tailed Kite in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS32007
ZapataTEXAS21979
CatarinaTEXAS21995
HondoTEXAS22008
ProgresoTEXAS22011
RachalTEXAS12015
Agua NuevaTEXAS12011
KingsvilleTEXAS12002
EncinalTEXAS11984
El IndioTEXAS11998
GuerraTEXAS12009
Encinal 2TEXAS12016
Catarina 3TEXAS12018
HeidelbergTEXAS12021
Millett 2TEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.