Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Harrier Population Trend in Pennsylvania
Northern Harrier in Pennsylvania has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
-29%Since 1971
41Routes In State
40Years
Notable Northern Harrier Trends in Pennsylvania
No notable trend signals for Northern Harrier in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.
Northern Harrier Population Forecast in Pennsylvania
If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2028
0.02Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.0595% range
±115.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2025 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| 2028 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Northern Harrier Survey Routes in Pennsylvania
| Shelocta | 2 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Ryde | 2 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Shrewsbury | 2 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Slippery Rk | 1 | 1976 | 1970 |
| Espyville | 1 | 1971 | 1971 |
| Harmonsburg | 1 | 1995 | 1975 |
| Ferris Crnrs | 1 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Ellenton | 1 | 2004 | 1999 |
| Teepleville | 1 | 1992 | 1966 |
| Sigel | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
| N Washington | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Pottersdale | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Betula | 1 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Sproul Sf-B | 1 | 2023 | 2022 |
| Ridgway | 1 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Rasselas | 1 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Arnot | 1 | 2023 | 1983 |
| Little Marsh | 1 | 2013 | 1988 |
| Rosecrans | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Austinville | 1 | 2012 | 1991 |
| Rush | 1 | 1990 | 1990 |
| Bow Bridge | 1 | 2008 | 2002 |
| Waller | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Millville | 1 | 2008 | 2007 |
| Hop Bottom | 1 | 1970 | 1970 |
Northern Harrier Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.