BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Northern Harrier in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969
74Routes In State
56Years

Notable Northern Harrier Trends in Minnesota

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Harrier has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Harrier Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Minnesota is projected to rise about 123% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.07–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2029
0.45Projected 2029 index
0.07–0.8295% range
±170.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.450.070.82
20260.450.070.82
20270.450.070.82
20280.450.070.82
20290.450.070.82

Northern Harrier Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Minnesota.
Redwood Fall520121984
Lake Bronson520111978
Wigwam Bay320231967
Tenney320141980
Tracy320132004
Big Stone320121995
Chatfield219701970
Lakeville220001968
Osseo220191967
Knapp220191967
Chokio220172004
Island Lake220171967
Debs220191969
Waskish220211980
Nett Lake220182014
Frontenac220171994
Franklin220162005
Mcgregor220211993
Brainerd220241996
Whitewater 2220162011
Bagley220061996
Hartland120091971
Huntley120242017
Chandler120151969
Ash Creek120242024

Northern Harrier Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.