BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Harrier in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Harrier Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Harrier has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Harrier Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±285.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.38
20260.150.000.38
20270.150.000.37
20280.150.000.37
20290.150.000.37

Northern Harrier Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agate 2420242002
Holbrook320191969
Oglala Nat. Grass.320151999
Surprise320071970
Paxton320161967
Table319811975
Kimball320211975
Marsland320212018
Crookston320192019
Winside 2320072005
Agate220011969
Crawford220241980
Julian120161971
Johnson120242002
Liberty119681968
Belvidere120041970
Seward119851977
Kenesaw119951978
Kearney119791970
Sumner119961968
Bartley120161976
Stratton120061984
Irvington119691969
Bartlett119751971
Petersburg120041987

Northern Harrier Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.