Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Harrier Population Trend in Michigan
Northern Harrier in Michigan has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-83%Since 1968
61Routes In State
57Years
Notable Northern Harrier Trends in Michigan
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Harrier has collapsed in Michigan: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Northern Harrier Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-8%Change by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1995% range
±87.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2026 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2028 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2029 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
Northern Harrier Survey Routes in Michigan
| Crystal Fls | 2 | 1992 | 1982 |
| Skeels | 2 | 1989 | 1967 |
| No Bradley | 2 | 1994 | 1970 |
| Beaver Lake | 2 | 1970 | 1968 |
| Hubbard Lake | 2 | 1993 | 1974 |
| Owendale | 2 | 1992 | 1979 |
| S Lyons | 2 | 1970 | 1966 |
| Seney Nwr | 2 | 2018 | 2008 |
| Ontonagon | 1 | 1967 | 1967 |
| Hungerford | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Bootjack | 1 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Ned Lake | 1 | 1988 | 1986 |
| Chippewa Lk. | 1 | 2002 | 2002 |
| Gibbs City | 1 | 2006 | 1999 |
| Maple Grove | 1 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Ishpeming | 1 | 1981 | 1981 |
| Brocky Lake | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Wilson | 1 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Cunard | 1 | 1994 | 1987 |
| Shingleton | 1 | 2005 | 1967 |
| Walloon Lake 2 | 1 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Isabella | 1 | 2004 | 1972 |
| Bear Lake | 1 | 2012 | 1988 |
| Scottville | 1 | 1976 | 1976 |
| Hamburg 2 | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
Northern Harrier Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.