Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Harrier Population Trend in New Mexico
Northern Harrier in New Mexico has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-76%Since 1973
29Routes In State
37Years
Notable Northern Harrier Trends in New Mexico
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Harrier has collapsed in New Mexico: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Northern Harrier Population Forecast in New Mexico
If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2028
0.05Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.1795% range
±103.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2025 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2027 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2028 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
Northern Harrier Survey Routes in New Mexico
| Farley | 2 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Lake Valley | 2 | 2007 | 1980 |
| Nageesi | 1 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Grenville | 1 | 2015 | 1980 |
| Pecos | 1 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Wagon Mound | 1 | 1976 | 1976 |
| Fence Lake | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Correo | 1 | 1982 | 1982 |
| Cooley Lake | 1 | 2018 | 1968 |
| Floyd | 1 | 2015 | 1992 |
| Horse Mtn | 1 | 1971 | 1968 |
| Roswell | 1 | 1973 | 1971 |
| Caprock | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Gage | 1 | 2007 | 1977 |
| Jornada | 1 | 2008 | 1979 |
| Maxwell | 1 | 2011 | 2005 |
| Rodeo | 1 | 2007 | 1986 |
| Counselor | 1 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Sedan | 1 | 2017 | 1999 |
| Rosebud | 1 | 2022 | 2003 |
| Clovis | 1 | 2018 | 1994 |
| Laborcita | 1 | 2019 | 2008 |
| Bitter Lake | 1 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Pep | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Hobbs | 1 | 2005 | 1994 |
Northern Harrier Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.