BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Shorebirds In Texas

All statesTexas

7 species in this guild. As a group they are -57%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have fallen sharply in Texas, down 57% since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.64 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.64 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.221.2
20260.680.201.2
20270.660.191.1
20280.650.171.1
20290.640.161.1

Member Species In Texas

Shorebirds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American OystercatcherHaematopodidae-65%
KilldeerCharadriidae-59%
WilletScolopacidae-23%
Wilson's PloverCharadriidae-4%
Long-billed CurlewScolopacidae+237%
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae+308%
American AvocetRecurvirostridae+310%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.