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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Plover Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Plover in Texas has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-4%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Plover Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Plover in Texas. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Plover Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Texas is projected to fall about 66% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Texas is projected to fall about 66% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.06
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05

Wilson's Plover Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Wilson's Plover in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr820231998
Kingsville219881971
Bayside 3220232023
Lag Atascosa119941969
Padre Island Pais120152015
Indianola120102003
Loyola Beach120082008
Oyster Lake120191997
Loyola Beach 2120222010
Bayside 2120012001

Wilson's Plover Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridalouisiana

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.