BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Plover

CharadriidaeShorebirdsAnarhynchus wilsonia

Wilson's Plover has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Wilson's Plover

The Wilson's Plover (Anarhynchus wilsonia) is a North American member of the Plovers & Lapwings (Charadriidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the shorebirds.

Size
6–12 in long (15–30 cm) — a small to medium shorebird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Shorelines, mudflats, beaches, flooded fields and wet meadows.
Diet
Invertebrates probed or picked from mud, sand and shallow water.
Range
Recorded on 21 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Family
Charadriidae · Shorebirds

Notable Wilson's Plover TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Plover. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Plover Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.00
20250.000.000.00
20260.000.000.00
20270.000.000.00
20280.000.000.00

Where the Wilson's Plover Is Detected

BBS routes recording Wilson's Plover, sized by most recent count.

Wilson's Plover Population Trend by State

Wilson's Plover population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a3
Florida-81%19687
Louisianainsufficient datan/a1
Texas-4%197110

Wilson's Plover Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Wilson's Plover population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southeastern Coastal Plain-60%19706
Peninsular Florida-24%19694
Gulf Coastal Prairie+13%197110

Wilson's Plover Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 18% since 1968. Many shorebirds have declined steeply, reflecting pressure on the coastal and wetland stopovers they depend on.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.