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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Plover Population Trend in Florida

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Plover in Florida has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Plover Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Plover has collapsed in Florida: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wilson's Plover Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2016, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2016TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2016 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2016, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662016
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20120.020.000.07
20130.010.000.07
20140.010.000.07
20150.010.000.07
20160.010.000.07

Wilson's Plover Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Wilson's Plover in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plantation K719931966
Santa Rosa320031991
Ft Waltn Bch119701966
Key Largo119891989
Scottsmoor119731972
St Vincent I120112006
Sugarloaf Key 2120062005

Wilson's Plover Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.