BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Plover In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Wilson's Plover in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+13%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Plover in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Plover In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2028 — from 0.43 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Plover in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2028 — from 0.43 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.140.000.33
20250.140.000.33
20260.140.000.33
20270.140.000.33
20280.140.000.33

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Wilson's Plover in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS82023
Bayside 3TEXAS22023
Grand IsleLOUISIANA12011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS11994
IndianolaTEXAS12010
Loyola BeachTEXAS12008
Oyster LakeTEXAS12019
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12022
Bayside 2TEXAS12001
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.