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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Oystercatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

American Oystercatcher in Texas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

-65%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Oystercatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Oystercatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Oystercatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Oystercatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Oystercatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19982029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

American Oystercatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Oystercatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola320072007
Bayside 3220242024
Oyster Lake120241998
Padre Island Pais120152015

American Oystercatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridalouisianamassachusettsnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinarhode-islandsouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.