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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Oystercatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesShorebirds

American Oystercatcher in Florida has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-85%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Oystercatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Oystercatcher has collapsed in Florida: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

American Oystercatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, American Oystercatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Oystercatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.13
20260.000.000.13
20270.000.000.13
20280.000.000.13
20290.000.000.13

American Oystercatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording American Oystercatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aripeka1419961996
Sandy719961996
Cross City220132001
Dowling Park219961996
St Vincent I120241996
Alligator Pt120171995

American Oystercatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarelouisianamassachusettsnew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.