BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Texas has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+237%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Curlew Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Curlew has surged in Texas: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Long-billed Curlew Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.69
20260.260.000.69
20270.260.000.68
20280.260.000.68
20290.260.000.68

Long-billed Curlew Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr2020232003
Loyola Beach 21620242010
Dalhart1620241994
Bayside1120102010
Loyola Beach920051999
Lag Atascosa420221971
Kingsville420231978
Indianola420132013
Texline420241975
San Pedro320141999
Danbury219971997
Lamesa219751975
Plains219721968
Channing220071967
Encinal119781978
Bayside 2120042004
Progreso120072007
Chinquapin120132013
Oyster Lake120232002
Brite120102010
Grayback119931993
Circle120062006
Raymondville120082008
Plains119981998
Lakeview120182017

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.