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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Oklahoma has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+275%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Curlew Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Curlew has surged in Oklahoma: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Long-billed Curlew Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.000.78
20260.380.000.78
20270.380.000.79
20280.380.000.79
20290.390.000.80

Long-billed Curlew Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keyes1120241992
Felt920241968
Hooker220172003
Beaver119811981
Duncan119931993

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.