BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Nebraska has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Curlew Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Long-billed Curlew Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Nebraska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Nebraska is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.002.0
20260.610.002.0
20270.590.002.0
20280.570.002.0
20290.560.002.0

Long-billed Curlew Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay Springs1120242023
Piester Lake820241967
Mullen820231990
Oglala Nat. Grass.720231999
Agate620011968
Agate 2520242002
Gordon520241975
Dalton320061968
Arthur320241985
Marsland320212018
Paxton219921976
Eagle Creek219711969
Ringgold220241985
Murray Lake220092004
Crawford220051981
Crookston220242018
Almeria119921990
Swan Lake120051969
Johnstown120131977
Kennedy120161976
Table119741974
Crescent Lk120171980
Brownlee120241990
Berea120181980
Nenzel120242019

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.