BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in New Mexico has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Curlew Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Long-billed Curlew Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in New Mexico is projected to rise about 128% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+128%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in New Mexico is projected to rise about 128% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.2
20270.570.001.2
20280.570.001.2
20290.570.001.2
20300.570.001.2

Long-billed Curlew Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooley Lake1420231968
Bitter Lake720172004
Raton519941994
Hobbs420112006
Columbus419931993
Sabinoso420211990
Maxwell320251996
Farley220161982
Pecos220151988
Wagon Mound219781970
Sedan220251994
Pastura220251997
Clovis220242004
Grenville120251968
Tucumcari119751975
Fence Lake120251995
Floyd120251968
Roswell119951995
Caprock120211993
Gallinas120161992
Rosebud120251994
Pep120241992
Logan120101978

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.