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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in North Dakota

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Long-billed Curlew in North Dakota has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+24%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Curlew Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Long-billed Curlew Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.16
20250.070.000.16
20260.070.000.16
20270.070.000.16
20280.070.000.16

Long-billed Curlew Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham120101989
Golva120231999
Ft Yates120032003
Tobacco119971996
Bowman120091967

Long-billed Curlew Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.