BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willet Population Trend in Texas

All statesShorebirds

Willet in Texas has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willet Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willet in Texas. See the full index history below.

Willet Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.10–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.10–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.090.61
20270.350.090.61
20280.350.090.62
20290.360.090.62
20300.360.100.62

Willet Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Willet in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr2520251998
Stowell2220232021
Chinquapin1820251995
Padre Island Pais1320152015
Lag Atascosa1120251969
Oyster Lake820251995
Bayside 3720252005
Petronila520212021
Indianola220231967
Bayside 2220041999
Kingsville119891981
Hinkles Fer119861986
Loyola Beach 2120232010
Winnie120241997
Danbury120181986
Loyola Beach120092006
Bayside120101994
Guerra119931988
Raymondville119961996
San Pedro120151996

Willet Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidaholouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotautahvirginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.