BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willet Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Willet in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willet Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willet Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Willet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.53.5
20272.51.53.5
20282.51.63.5
20292.61.63.5
20302.61.63.5

Willet Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Willet in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Danzig 21320252019
Wild Rose720251982
Danzig620141982
Webster520241989
Niles520241989
Parshall520131982
Lakota 2520252010
Wimbledon420252004
Horsehead Lk420251980
Loraine420191982
Sheyenne Lk420251980
Braddock420231988
Cooperstown320251969
Buchanan320251967
Carpio320231967
Denbigh320231968
Montpelier320241998
Forman220191968
Bowesmont219711971
Lakota220091968
Regan220251968
Stanley220231969
Zap219921992
Cedar Creek220121970
Bentley220241991

Willet Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidaholouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.