BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Willet in North Dakota has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+101%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willet Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has surged in North Dakota: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willet Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Willet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.63.5
20262.61.63.5
20272.61.63.6
20282.61.63.6
20292.61.73.6

Willet Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Willet in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose1420241982
Danzig620141982
Webster520241989
Niles520241989
Parshall520131982
Loraine420191982
Horsehead Lk320241980
Buchanan320241967
Regan320221968
Carpio320231967
Denbigh320231968
Montpelier320241998
Forman220191968
Cooperstown220241969
Bowesmont219711971
Lakota220091968
Stanley220231969
Zap219921992
Cedar Creek220121970
Bentley220241991
Glen Ullin220211986
Douglas Crk220241982
Sheyenne Lk220241980
Braddock220221988
Danzig 2220242019

Willet Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidaholouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.