BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesShorebirds

Willet in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-71%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willet Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Willet Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Willet in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.002.9
20260.200.002.9
20270.130.002.8
20280.060.002.7
20290.000.002.7

Willet Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Willet in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocean City1820241979
Greenwich119961995
Six Points120241978
Cape May Ch120112011

Willet Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidaholouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.