BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet Population Trend in Florida

All statesShorebirds

Willet in Florida has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willet Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has fallen sharply in Florida: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Willet Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±342.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±342.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.35
20260.100.000.35
20270.090.000.35
20280.090.000.34
20290.090.000.34

Willet Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Willet in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Vincent I820241998
Key West719871987
Sugarloaf Key519991999
Merritt Isl320111991
Plantation K319941969
Punta Gorda220141982
Port St Joe220131967
Holey Land219941994
Scottsmoor220191968
Santa Rosa220031987
Ft Waltn Bch120011966
Steinhatchee120071967
Ft Gadsden119761976
Sugarloaf Key 2120082005
Vero Beach120131999
Alligator Pt120151988
Cross City120102002
Aripeka120161987
Port St Joe 2120172017

Willet Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidaholouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.