BirdAnalyst
Guild · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Tennessee

All statesTennessee

52 species in this guild. As a group they are -41%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Tennessee, down 41% since 1968.

Generalists In Tennessee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Tennessee is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.9–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Tennessee is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.9–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.05.38.6
20266.95.28.5
20276.85.18.4
20286.75.08.3
20296.64.98.2

Member Species In Tennessee

Generalists species in Tennessee.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-96%
Common GrackleIcteridae-90%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-88%
House SparrowPasseridae-86%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-69%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-58%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-58%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-56%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-49%
Blue JayCorvidae-46%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-45%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-38%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-36%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-34%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-20%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-19%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-17%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-16%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-16%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-8%
Common RavenCorvidae-1%
European StarlingSturnidae+9%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae+13%
American CrowCorvidae+14%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+16%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae+21%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+22%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+36%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+61%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+61%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+66%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+84%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+138%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+173%
Barred OwlStrigidae+181%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+234%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+256%
American KestrelFalconidae+293%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+313%
Red CrossbillFringillidae+338%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+352%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+354%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+382%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+470%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+635%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+822%
Fish CrowCorvidae+871%
OspreyPandionidae+937%
Black VultureCathartidae12×
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae19×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae31×
House FinchFringillidae57×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.