BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

7 species in this guild. As a group they are -29%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for game birds in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.003.8
20261.60.003.8
20271.50.003.7
20281.50.003.7
20291.50.003.7

Member Species In Minnesota

Game birds species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae-46%
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-34%
Gray PartridgePhasianidae+10%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae+40%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+77%
Sharp-tailed GrousePhasianidae+124%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+726%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.