BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Minnesota has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has surged in Minnesota: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.1
20260.430.001.1
20270.430.001.1
20280.430.001.1
20290.430.001.1

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm2320242022
Backus1120131967
Bigfork1020231995
Sherry Lake820221969
Lake Bronson819791979
Mahtowa820221993
Lude620231978
Mille Lacs520081967
Cohasset520221979
Crane Lake420221970
Tamarac Nwr320241991
Cromwell320231967
Bemidji319671967
Cass Lake220041987
Wigwam Bay219861967
Pine River220241967
Floodwood219961991
Island Lake220162016
Debs220211978
Wylie220191981
Little Fork220241990
Babbitt220131996
Blackduck220222005
Money Creek120181972
Sherburne Nr120072007

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.