BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Michigan has surged: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+377%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has surged in Michigan: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Michigan is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.31–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Michigan is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.31–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.251.3
20260.790.271.3
20270.800.281.3
20280.810.291.3
20290.830.311.3

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marenisco3520191981
Ontonagon1120191967
Raco1120241971
Frederic1019971997
Scott'S Marsh820092006
Hiawatha Nf720241992
Ensign720092006
Creighton420231978
Isabella419981979
Imp Lake420191996
Maple Grove320231969
Hungerford320182012
Big Island Lake320092008
Brush Creek320161979
Betchler Lks320192009
Ned Lake220241996
Crystal Fls220241982
Bear Lake220221971
Bravo219941993
Gilchrist219851976
Hubbard Lake219961986
Seney Nwr220191992
Harrietta120161993
Bergland120221990
Bootjack120091993

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.