BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Utah has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-66%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has fallen sharply in Utah: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.15
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.14

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge1020241992
Moon Lake 2120232015
Skyline Driv120032003
Beck119811972
Altonah119941994
Gooseberry120132008
Lost Cr. Res120151995
Wasatch Nf120172002
Saleratus Cr120152015
Logan Canyon120182012
Beck 2120161995
Heber Mtn.120222002
Red Spur Mtn.120122012
Woodruff120132013
Hanna120032003
Ferron120222007
Randolph120092000
Moon Lake119981998

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.