BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Virginia has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.050.000.13
20170.050.000.13
20180.050.000.13
20190.050.000.13
20200.050.000.13

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Star Tannery519851985
W Augusta120091967
Stanley119691969
Tryme119751975
Edinburg119861968
Nat Tunnel119851985
Rural Retrt119951982
Gr North Mtn120062006
New Market120151993
Douthat119961992
Potts Mtn.120091996
Mountain Lk.120112008
Covington119851977
Shenandoa Np120111994
Pw Forest Pk119921992
Natural Brid119841984
Carters Brdg119841984
Big Meadows119931993
Loft Mtn120151993
Front Royal120121994
Stickleyvill119861979
Saltville120012001
Elamsville119861983

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.