BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Alaska has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+37%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruffed Grouse in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Alaska is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Alaska is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.24
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.100.000.24

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galena (Short)620232002
Bear Creek419861986
Anvik River320241998
Unalakleet River220242000
Hather Creek220241993
Koyukuk Riv.220011998
Hyder220002000
Circle119951995
Chatanika R120131994
Livengood120112011
Slana120222013
Tower Bluffs120222022
Northway120231994
Stikine River120242022
Chena Hot Spring 2120182000
Coldfoot120222022
Nicholai Sl120221994
Kanuti Canyn120082003
Mcgrath119991998
Manley Ht Sp120162003
Mud River120191996
Ruby120211995
L Salcha120131986
Porcupine R.120002000
Ft. Richrdsn120032003

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.