BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in New York

All statesGame birds

Ruffed Grouse in New York has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has risen sharply in New York: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±328.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±328.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±328.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.010.25
20270.130.020.25
20280.130.020.25
20290.130.020.25
20300.130.020.25

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown319681968
Platte Cove220162011
Mcdonough220151990
Trumansburg219881988
Cattaraugus219831978
Oneida220101976
Sabattis219701968
S Vandalia219961996
Oxford 2220191980
Old Forge 2220142011
Bedford119911976
Rhinebeck119791967
Highland119951995
Rifton119801980
Westbrookvle119691969
W Shokan119841972
Austerlitz120051967
Petersburg120111973
Catskills119731973
Medusa120222017
Meridale120231970
Cobleskill120172017
Duanesburg119761976
S Berne120131979
Laurens120091969

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.