BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in New York has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruffed Grouse Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has surged in New York: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ruffed Grouse Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±308.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±308.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in New York is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±308.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.020.25
20260.140.020.25
20270.140.020.26
20280.140.030.26
20290.140.030.26

Ruffed Grouse Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wanakena1220241992
Cooperstown319681968
Platte Cove220162011
Mcdonough220151990
Trumansburg219881988
Cattaraugus219831978
Oneida220101976
Sabattis219701968
S Vandalia219961996
Oxford 2220191980
Old Forge 2220142011
Bedford119911976
Rhinebeck119791967
Highland119951995
Rifton119801980
Westbrookvle119691969
W Shokan119841972
Austerlitz120051967
Petersburg120111973
Catskills119731973
Medusa120222017
Meridale120231970
Cobleskill120172017
Duanesburg119761976
S Berne120131979

Ruffed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutgeorgiaidahoindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.