BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Partridge Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Gray Partridge in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+10%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Partridge Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Partridge in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Gray Partridge Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.61
20260.000.000.61
20270.000.000.61
20280.000.000.61
20290.000.000.61

Gray Partridge Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Gray Partridge in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tracy820042004
Maynard420121977
Whitewater 2420152015
Chokio North420052005
Money Creek319931983
Beltrami319801973
Wylie320241979
Austin320211996
Chatfield219861986
Huntley220171974
Ash Creek220141976
Lakeville219941972
Courtland220181978
Redwood Fall220081978
Knapp219831967
Gluek220111971
Edwards219921992
Tenney219901990
Oklee219891979
Erie219911982
Grygla219911981
Badger220001979
Le Roy220171993
Fairmont220141993
Franklin220242004

Gray Partridge Population Trend in Other States

idahoillinoisindianaiowamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.