BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Partridge Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGame birds

Gray Partridge in North Dakota has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+179%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Partridge Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Partridge has surged in North Dakota: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Gray Partridge Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in North Dakota is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Partridge in North Dakota is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.002.1
20270.800.002.1
20280.790.002.1
20290.790.002.1
20300.790.002.0

Gray Partridge Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Gray Partridge in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson1120251971
Bentley1120241988
Gorham820251969
Glen Ullin720251982
Danzig519951989
Sheyenne Lk520241980
Douglas Crk420241983
Solen420252007
Edgeley320091980
Emerado320251975
Roosevelt Pk320171988
Cedar Creek320221970
Golva320231988
Wild Rose320231982
Parshall320131982
Braddock320131988
Forman219911968
Walcott220171968
Sydney219831968
Lake George220111976
Kempton220031972
Cooperstown220251970
Buchanan220251967
Lakota219931968
Webster220221992

Gray Partridge Population Trend in Other States

idahoillinoisindianaiowaminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.