BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Pheasant Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGame birds

Ring-necked Pheasant in North Dakota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Pheasant Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Pheasant has surged in North Dakota: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ring-necked Pheasant Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 48–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
48–8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Pheasant in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 48–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026624382
2027634483
2028654584
2029664685
2030674886

Ring-necked Pheasant Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Ring-necked Pheasant in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson71020251969
Gorham26620251968
Carson20720251988
Bentley18120241988
Douglas Crk16520251982
Sheyenne Lk11720251982
Wild Rose10220251982
Dunn Center9720251968
Bowman9320251967
Powers Lake8620251980
Edgeley8420251982
Glen Ullin8420251982
Danzig 28320252019
Horsehead Lk8020251982
Zap7920241967
Golva6220251979
Denbigh6020251969
Buchanan5720251976
Stanley5220251967
Ft Yates5120041968
Braddock5020231988
Tobacco4820191968
Regan4220251968
Forman4120251968
Montpelier3720251990

Ring-necked Pheasant Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.